A Machine-Learning-Based Approach to Predict Deforestation Related to Oil Palm: Conceptual Framework and Experimental Evaluation

Abstract

Deforestation is recognized as an issue that has negative effects on the ecosystem. Predicting deforestation and defining the causes of deforestation is an important process that could help monitor and prevent deforestation. Deforestation prediction has been boosted by recent advances in geospatial technologies and applications, especially remote sensing technologies and machine learning techniques. This paper highlights the issue of predicting deforestation related to oil palm, which has not been focused on in existing research studies. The paper proposes an approach that aims to enhance the prediction of deforestation related to oil palm plantations and palm oil production. The proposed approach is based on a conceptual framework and an assessment of a set of criteria related to such deforestation. The criteria are assessed and validated based on a sensitivity analysis. The framework is based on machine learning and image processing techniques. It consists of three main steps, which are data preparation, model training, and validation. The framework is implemented in a case study in the Aceh province of Indonesia to show the feasibility of our proposed approach in predicting deforestation related to oil palm. The implementation of the proposed approach shows an acceptable accuracy for predicting deforestation.

Keywords

• machine learning
• deforestation prediction
• accuracy
• criteria assessment
• image processing