A New Model Considering Uncertainties for Power Market

Abstract

Medium-term modeling of electricity market has essential role in generation expansion planning. On the other hand, uncertainties strongly affect modeling and consequently, strategic analysis of generation firms in the medium term. Therefore, models considering these uncertainties are highly required. Among uncertain variables considered in the medium term generation planning, demand and hydro inflows are of the greatest importance. This paper proposes a new approach for simulating the operation of power market in medium-term, taking into account demand and hydro inflows uncertainties. The demand uncertainty is considered using Monte-Carlo simulations. Standard Deviation over Expected Profit (SDEP) of generation firms based on simulation results is introduced as a new index for analyzing the influence of the demand uncertainty on the behavior of market players. The correlation between capacity share of market players and their SDEP is also demonstrated. The uncertainty of inflow as a stochastic variable is dealt using scenario tree representation. Rational uncertainties as strategic behavior of generation firms, intending to maximize their expected profit, is considered and Nash-Equilibrium is determined using the Cournot model game. Market power mitigation effects through financial bilateral contracts as well as demand elasticity are also investigated. Case studies confirm that this representation of electricity market provides robust decisions and precise information about electricity market for market players which can be used in the generation expansion planning framework.

Keywords

• Electricity Markets
• Game Theory
• Medium-term Generation Planning
• Monte-Carlo Simulations
• Nash-Cournot Equilibrium
• Uncertainties.