Energy Reports (Dec 2023)
A novel dynamic parameter discrete grey model and its application
Abstract
As an environmentally friendly energy, natural gas has become one of China’s important energy resources. Therefore, it is fundamentally significant to accurately predict the production and consumption of natural gas. In conventional prediction models, there is a problem that model parameters are determined accordingly right after the establishment of the model and thus unable to change synchronously with the external system. To overcome this problem and obtain accurate forecasts of natural gas production and consumption, some measures are taken in this paper. Firstly, a grey prediction model (EGM(1,1)) with dynamic parameters is established based on the parameter sequence obtained from DGM(1,1). After studying the dynamics of the parameters, a new dynamic parameter discrete grey model (denoted as DDGM(1,1) is proposed. Then, the validity of this new model DDGM(1,1) is verified. The result shows that this model has higher performances than other models and its prediction is more accurate and reliable. Finally, the proposed model is applied to predict China’s natural gas production and Chinese residents’ natural gas consumption from 2021 to 2024 so as to provide some valuable information for the energy industry.
