Risk Analysis in Managerial Decision-Making Based on Behavioral Approach

Abstract

The article is aimed at studying the essence of risk in the process of making managerial decisions, taking into account the behavioral approach and identifying the causes of risk occurrence. The article carries out a risk study structured in accordance with two dichotomies: risk/reliability and risk/danger. At this, the concept of managerial decision risk means a complex set of alternatives, during the analysis of which there is a need to make a decision. The opposite side in each case acts only as a concept of reflection, whose function is to clarify what in a particular case is emphasized in the risk per se: the problem of measuring accuracy in the first case or the degree of responsibility for the damage itself — in the second. As for both differences, it is identified that there is no risk-free managerial decision. It is proved that the concept of risk in the process of making managerial decisions, taking into account the behavioral approach, should be contrasted with the concept of reliability. The scientific approach to determining reliability is presented in the statement that absolute reliability is unattainable. The phenomenon of reasonable risk in the process of making managerial decisions is provided, taking into account the behavioral approach, which is part of the general problem studied by economists and is terminologically recorded as «justified economic activity». An element of such activity is the managerial decision-making. The risks that are likely to arise in the process of managerial decisions taking into account behavioral approach, at both the qualitative and the quantitative levels are studied. It is proved that quantitative study of risks identified at the qualitative level is the main purpose of risk analysis in accordance with the theory of decision-making in the presence of risk.

Keywords

• management
• behavioral economics
• managerial decisions
• risk
• managerial decision-making process