A Forecasting Prognosis of the Monkeypox Outbreak Based on a Comprehensive Statistical and Regression Analysis

Abstract

The uncommon illness known as monkeypox is brought on by the monkeypox virus. The Orthopoxvirus genus belongs to the family Poxviridae, which also contains the monkeypox virus. The variola virus, which causes smallpox; the vaccinia virus, which is used in the smallpox vaccine; and the cowpox virus are all members of the Orthopoxvirus genus. There is no relationship between chickenpox and monkeypox. After two outbreaks of a disorder resembling pox, monkeypox was first discovered in colonies of monkeys kept for research in 1958. The illness, also known as “monkeypox”, still has no known cause. However, non-human primates and African rodents can spread the disease to humans (such as monkeys). In 1970, a human was exposed to monkeypox for the first time. Several additional nations in central and western Africa currently have documented cases of monkeypox. Before the 2022 outbreak, almost all instances of monkeypox in people outside of Africa were connected to either imported animals or foreign travel to nations where the illness frequently occurs. In this work, the most recent monkeypox dataset was evaluated and the significant instances were visualized. Additionally, nine different forecasting models were also used, and the prophet model emerged as the most reliable one when compared with all nine models with an MSE value of 41,922.55, an R2 score of 0.49, a MAPE value of 16.82, an MAE value of 146.29, and an RMSE value of 204.75, which could be considerable assistance to clinicians treating monkeypox patients and government agencies monitoring the origination and current state of the disease.

Keywords

• human monkeypox
• outbreak
• geographical monkeypox analysis
• machine learning
• forecasting prediction