Potential for Interspecies Toxicity Estimation in Soil Invertebrates

Abstract

Interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models are linear regressions that predict toxicity to a species with few data using a known toxicity value in a surrogate species. ICE models are well established for estimating toxicity to fish and aquatic invertebrates but have not been generally developed or applied to soil organisms. To facilitate the development of ICE models for soil invertebrates, a database of single chemical toxicity values was compiled from knowledgebases and reports that included 853 records encompassing 192 chemicals and 12 species. Most toxicity data for single chemicals tested in soil media were for species of earthworms, with only limited data for other species and taxa. ICE models were developed for eleven separate species pairs as least squares log-linear regressions of acute toxicity values of the same chemicals tested in both the surrogate and predicted species of soil organisms. Model uncertainty was assessed using leave one out cross-validation as the fold difference between a predicted and measured toxicity value. ICE models showed high accuracy within order (e.g., earthworm to earthworm), but less prediction accuracy in the two across-taxa models (Arthropoda to Annelida and the inverse). This study provides a proof-of-concept demonstration that ICE models can be developed for soil invertebrates.

Keywords

• model prediction accuracy
• earthworms
• interspecies correlation estimation
• toxicity extrapolation