Liver Fibrosis and 8-Year All-Cause Mortality Trajectories in the Aging Cohort of the Salus in Apulia Study

Abstract

Age is a major contributor to the liver fibrosis rate and its adverse health-related outcomes, including mortality, but older populations are still under-explored. We investigated multimorbidity and inflammatory biomarkers in relation to the increasing liver fibrosis risk to delineate 8-year all-cause mortality trajectories in 1929 older adults from the population-based Salus in Apulia Study. Liver fibrosis risk was assumed using the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score, assigned to three liver fibrosis risk groups (low, intermediate, high). In the secondary analyses, the APRI score was also calculated to allow for comparisons. Male subjects (prevalence difference: −13.49, 95% confidence interval (CI): −18.96 to −8.03), a higher multimorbidity burden (effect size, ES: −0.14, 95% CI: −0.26 to −0.02), a higher prevalence of physical frailty (ES: 6.77, 95% CI: 0.07 to 13.47), and a more pronounced inflammatory pattern as indicated by tumor growth factor-α circulating levels (ES: −0.12, 95% CI: −0.23 to −0.01) were significantly more common in the highest-risk FIB-4 score group. Liver function characterized by lipid profile and platelet levels worsened with increasing FIB-4 risk score. The 8-year risk of death was nearly double in subjects in the highest-risk FIB-4 score group, even after controlling for possible confounders. Furthermore, a steeper mortality curve was clearly observed for FIB-4 scores as compared with the APRI scoring system with respect to liver fibrosis risk. In conclusion, using a scoring tool based on simple routine biomarkers to detect liver fibrosis risk may enhance biological knowledge of age-related outcomes of chronic liver disease and be helpful in the clinical setting to identify subjects at risk for adverse health-related outcomes, including mortality.

Keywords

• chronic liver disease
• frailty
• survival
• biomarkers
• liver fibrosis