Forecasting Research on Urban Green Development Based on System Dynamics—A Case Study of Hefei in China

Abstract

Urban green development is a way of economic growth and social development aiming at efficiency, harmony and sustainability, and in recent years urban green development has become an important trend for future urban development. In this study, Hefei City is selected as the study area, and a comprehensive green-development model is constructed by applying the system dynamics method, which integrates five important subsystems, namely, economy, environment, people’s livelihood, S and T and resources. Through simulation analysis, this study reveals the dynamic trend of green development in Hefei City. The analysis results show that economic growth provides the foundation for green development, scientific and technological innovation promotes the development of green technology, and that sustained investments in people’s livelihoods and environmental protection improves people’s quality of life and a city’s eco-friendliness. This study aims to promote the coordinated economic, social and environmental development of Hefei to ensure that Hefei is steadily moving towards high-quality and sustainable development goals; it effectively reveals the current situation, forecasts the trend of green development in Hefei, and also provides a reference for the urban green development of other cities.

Keywords

• urban green development
• economic growth
• system-dynamics model
• simulation analysis