An Adaptive Learning Approach for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Correction

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are dangerous weather events; accurate monitoring and forecasting can provide significant early warning to reduce loss of life and property. However, the study of tropical cyclone intensity remains challenging, both in terms of theory and forecasting. ERA5 reanalysis is a benchmark data set for tropical cyclone studies, yet the maximum wind speed error is very large (68 kts) and is still 19 kts after simple linear correction, even in the better sampled North Atlantic. Here, we develop an adaptive learning approach to correct the intensity in the ERA5 reanalysis, by optimising the inputs to overcome the problems caused by the poor data quality and updating the features to improve the generalisability of the deep learning-based model. Specifically, we use understanding of TC properties to increase the representativeness of the inputs so that the general features can be learned with deep neural networks in the sample space, and then use domain adaptation to update the general features from the known domain with historical storms to the specific features for the unknown domain of new storms. This approach can reduce the error to only 6 kts which is within the uncertainty of the best track data in the international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS) in the North Atlantic. The method may have wide applicability, such as when extending it to the correction of intensity estimation from satellite imagery and intensity prediction from dynamical models.

Keywords

• tropical cyclones
• ERA5 reanalysis
• deep learning
• generalisability
• domain adaptation