Phenological Response of Flood Plain Forest Ecosystem Species to Climate Change during 1961–2021

Abstract

The present study analyses 61 years of phenological observations (1961–2021) of five herb, five shrub, four tree, and one bird species representing the prevalent spring species of floodplain forest ecosystems in the Czech Republic, central Europe. The in situ observations were conducted at the Vranovice site (48°48′ N, 16°46′ E, 170 m above mean sea level) representing the Plaček’ forest National Reserve. The observed plants and bird species showed statistically significant (p r = 0.72–0.91). The results also showed a decline in the correlation for species among the phenophases of the herbs and trees. The phenophases that were highly correlated in the past were less correlated and had higher variability in the last decades. We conclude that the phenological response of the ecosystem to warming in the spring resulted in higher variability and a lower correlation among the observed phenophases mainly caused by the most expressive phenological shifts of the early herbs.

Keywords

• phenology
• asynchrony
• mismatch
• herbs
• shrubs
• trees