Seismic risk in the east of the Bayan Har block based on the POT model

Abstract

This article elaborates on a peaks over threshold (POT) model with earthquake samples based on the Pareto distribution. We analyze the earthquakes using the POT model in the eastern Bayan Har block. The result shows that the area experiences an earthquake above [Formula: see text] 7.5 every 30 years and a large earthquake above [Formula: see text] 7.8 every 100 years. The average magnitude of earthquakes above [Formula: see text] 5.2 that occur in the area every 5 years is [Formula: see text] 7.1 or greater. The upper limit of the theoretical magnitude predicted by the model is [Formula: see text] 8.7. Therefore, the risk of geological hazards is high in this area.

Keywords

• Pareto distribution
• POT model
• return period
• return level
• earthquake prediction