The Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Systemic Risk of Iran's Financial Markets (SURE Approach in Panel Data)

Abstract

The mutual relationship between monetary and fiscal policies and value at risk is one of the most important topics in the financial economics literature and accounts for the vast majority of empirical studies. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on conditional value at risk in the financial sectors of the stock exchange, bank and insurance during the years 1995-2017. For this purpose, by quantile regression method and in the form of Adrian and Brunnermeier approach, the conditional value at risk of these three financial sectors is estimated and then by using the seemingly unrelated regression equation approach in panel data evaluated the effect of liquidity money variables. The interest rate on facility payments, the real exchange rate, the government's budget deficit, real GDP growth, and the degree of economic openness are subject to conditional risk. The results of the model estimation indicate the significance of the effect of liquidity money, interest rate on facility payments and real exchange rate variables on conditional value at risk in each of three relevant equations, and real GDP growth variable in the model, Exposure to the conditional value at risk of the insurance sector has a negative and significant effect. Also, the degree of openness of the economy in any of the three estimated equations has no significant effect on the conditional value at risk.

Keywords

• monetary and fiscal policies
• systemic risk
• financial markets
• iran
• sure in panel data approach