Risk analysis of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought events and study of drought propagation features: a case study in the upper Tapti River sub-basin, Central India

Abstract

As a natural hazard, drought is a complex multivariate phenomenon that requires more comprehensive analysis. In this study, we studied meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought events with precipitation, soil moisture, and stream flow data for the study area. The risk analysis for drought duration and severity of three kinds of drought events were analyzed with univariate and three kinds of bivariate return periods based on the copula. Furthermore, the propagation of three kinds of drought was studied. From the investigation, it is observed that agricultural drought events are longer and more severe, besides the risk associated with agricultural drought is high compared to other kinds of drought. Moreover, the average time taken for meteorological drought to propagate into agricultural drought is 4.3 months and for the hydrological drought is 3.8 months for the river basin. The comprehensive study of three kinds of drought is helpful to adopt suitable drought management plans in the region. HIGHLIGHTS Studied characteristics of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought events in the river basin.; Found out that agricultural drought events have a long duration and high severity.; Meteorological drought has less risk compared to the other two kinds of drought.; The propagation time to agricultural drought from meteorological drought is long compared to the time taken for hydrological drought events.;

Keywords

• copula
• drought
• drought propagation
• joint return period
• kinds of drought