Exploring the impact of climate change on long-term and short-term variability of rainfall in Madhya Pradesh, Central India

Abstract

Abstract The present study assesses trends in rainfall in Madhya Pradesh, Central India, over the long (1871–2016) as well as short (1987–2016) temporal scales. The region is home to disadvantageous groups of the population including vulnerable tribals who depend on rainfall-based agriculture and forest products. Therefore, any disruption in rainfall trends due to climate change needs to be documented for better planning. This study focuses on two meteorological subdivisions, East and West Madhya Pradesh, which receive a major portion of rainfall through the Bay of Bengal branch and the Arabian Sea branch of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The study is based on the rainfall series provided by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India. This study used the Mann–Kendall test to detect a trend and Sen’s Slope to estimate the magnitude of change in rainfall. Statistically significant negative trends were detected in total annual (− 1.125 mm y − 1) and monsoon (− 1.242 mm y − 1) rainfall over long-term observation in East Madhya Pradesh only. However, during the last 30 years, no trends have been recorded in East Madhya Pradesh. In West Madhya Pradesh, rainfall has not recorded any trend for long- as well as short-term observation periods. The non-availability of a trend in rainfall during May and October at both meteorological subdivisions shows that there is no shift in the duration of the monsoon season over long as well as short temporal observations. The decreasing rainfall trends in Eastern Madhya Pradesh over the long-term observation seem to be caused by changing patterns of tropical cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal.

Keywords

• Rainfall
• Climate
• Monsoon
• Variability
• Mann–Kendall
• Madhya Pradesh