Assessment of Top of Atmosphere, Atmospheric and Surface Energy Budgets in CMIP6 Models on Regional Scales

Abstract

Abstract We examine top of atmosphere (TOA), atmospheric, and surface energy budget components of 53 CMIP6 models for the period 2000–2009 on regional scales with respect to two reference data sets: the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS), from which we adopt the regional decomposition, and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF). Focusing on regional scale, CMIP6 models tend to have more energy entering or less energy leaving the climate systems at TOA over the Northern Hemisphere land, Southern Hemisphere ocean and the polar regions compared to CERES EBAF, while the contrary applies in other regions. Atmospheric net shortwave and longwave fluxes both tend to be underestimated in CMIP6 models as compared to EBAF, with substantial regional differences. Regional surface radiative fluxes as reported by NEWS and EBAF can differ substantially. Nevertheless, robust regional biases exist in CMIP6. Surface upward shortwave radiation is overestimated by 43 (81%) models over Eurasia. For almost all surface radiative flux components over the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean, there are at least 21 (40%) models which fall outside the NEWS uncertainty range. Latent heat flux is overestimated over most of the land and ocean regions while firm conclusions for sensible heat flux remain elusive due to discrepancies between different reference data sets. Compared to CMIP5, there is an overall improvement in CMIP6 on regional scale. Still, substantial deficiencies and spreads on regional scale remain, which are potentially translated into an inadequate simulation of atmospheric dynamics or hydrological cycle.