Relating Hydro-Meteorological Variables to Water Table in an Unconfined Aquifer via Fuzzy Linear Regression

Abstract

This study aims to assess the short-term response of groundwater to the main hydro-meteorological variables of drought in a coastal unconfined aquifer. For this purpose, a multiple fuzzy linear regression-based methodology is implemented in order to relate rainfall, streamflow and the potential evapotranspiration to groundwater. Fuzzy regression analysis is recommended when there is a lack of data. The uncertainty of the system is incorporated into the regression coefficients which, in this study, are considered to be fuzzy symmetrical triangular numbers. Two objective functions are used producing a fuzzy band in which all the observed data must be included. The first objective function, based on Tanaka’s model, minimizes the total width of the produced fuzzy band. The second one includes the first while additionally minimizing the distance between the central value of the fuzzy output of the model and the observed value. Validity of the model is checked through suitability measures. The present methodology is applied at the east part of the Nestos River Delta in the Prefecture of Xanthi (Greece), where the observed values of the depth of groundwater level of four wells are examined.

Keywords

• fuzzy regression analysis
• groundwater level
• unconfined aquifer
• Nestos River Delta