The impact of apparent temperature on the emergency visits for traumatic fractures in Hangzhou, China

Abstract

Abstract Background Traumatic fractures occur frequently worldwide. However, research remains limited on the association between short-term exposure to temperature and traumatic fractures. This study aims to explore the impact of apparent temperature (AT) on emergency visits (EVs) due to traumatic fractures. Methods Based on EVs data for traumatic fractures and the contemporary meteorological data, a generalized Poisson regression model along with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) were undertaken to determine the impact of AT on traumatic fracture EVs. Subgroup analysis by gender and age and sensitivity analysis were also performed. Results A total of 25,094 EVs for traumatic fractures were included in the study. We observed a wide “J”-shaped relationship between AT and risk of traumatic fractures, with AT above 9.5 °C positively associated with EVs due to traumatic fractures. The heat effects became significant at cumulative lag 0–11 days, and the relative risk (RR) for moderate heat (95th percentile, 35.7 °C) and extreme heat (99.5th percentile, 38.8 °C) effect was 1.311 (95% CI: 1.132–1.518) and 1.418 (95% CI: 1.191–1.688) at cumulative lag 0–14 days, respectively. The cold effects were consistently non-significant on single or cumulative lag days across 0–14 days. The heat effects were higher among male and those aged 18–65 years old. The sensitivity analysis results remained robust. Conclusion Higher AT is associated with cumulative and delayed higher traumatic fracture EVs. The male and those aged 18–65 years are more susceptible to higher AT.

Keywords

• Apparent temperature
• Distributed lag nonlinear model
• Traumatic fracture
• Emergency visits