A Data-Driven Artificial Neural Network Approach to Software Project Risk Assessment

Abstract

In the realm of software project management, predicting and mitigating risks are pivotal for successful project execution. Traditional risk assessment methods have limitations in handling complex and dynamic software projects. This study presents a novel approach that leverages artificial neural networks (ANNs) to enhance risk prediction accuracy. We utilize historical project data, encompassing project complexity, financial factors, performance metrics, schedule adherence, and user-related variables, to train the ANN model. Our approach involves optimizing the ANN architecture, with various configurations tested to identify the most effective setup. We compare the performance of mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) as error functions and find that MAE yields superior results. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our model through comprehensive risk assessment. We predict both the overall project risk and individual risk factors, providing project managers with a valuable tool for risk mitigation. Validation results confirm the robustness of our approach when applied to previously unseen data. The achieved accuracy of 97.12% (or 99.12% with uncertainty consideration) underscores the potential of ANNs in risk management. This research contributes to the software project management field by offering an innovative and highly accurate risk assessment model. It empowers project managers to make informed decisions and proactively address potential risks, ultimately enhancing project success.