Analyzing the contributions of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Northeast Tibet Plateau

Abstract

Region: The Nagqu River Basin in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Focus: Climate change and human activities have altered the type of land use in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), which has affected the variation laws of water resources. We calibrated and verified the Water and Energy Transfer Process for a Large basin model (WEP-L), and calculated the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change and separated the impact of land use. New hydrological insights: The Archimedean Copula function was used to diagnose the variance between precipitation and runoff. The contribution of climate change to the runoff in the Dasa and Jiayuqiao subbasin was 81.7% and 71.5%, of which the contribution of land use was 39.3% and 32.6%, respectively. Human activities contributing to the runoff in the Dasa and Jiayuqiao subbasins were 18.3% and 28.5%, of which the contribution of land use is 7.9% and 2.8%, respectively. Climate change has led to the melting of glaciers, permanent permafrost and the shift of the vertical distribution of vegetation, which is the main reason for the runoff variation in the NRB. This research provides a scientific basis for the rational protection and utilization of water resources, as well as soil and water conservation work. Keywords: Precipitation–runoff, Mutation diagnosis, Climate change, Human activities, Land use, Hetao area