Prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality using ankle-brachial index and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity in patients with type 2 diabetes

Abstract

Abstract Ankle-brachial index (ABI) and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) are used as non-invasive indicators for detecting atherosclerosis and arterial stiffness, two well-known predictors of mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). ABI and baPWV have independent associations with mortality; however, their joint and interactive effects on mortality have not been assessed in patients with T2DM. This work aims to evaluate the independent, joint, and interactive associations of ABI and baPWV with all-cause and expanded cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in patients with T2DM. This observational study included 2160 patients with T2DM enlisted in the Diabetes Care Management Program database of China Medical University Hospital from 2001 to 2016 and then followed their death status until August 2021. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the independent, joint, and interactive effects of ABI and baPWV on the risk of all-cause and expanded CVD mortality. A total of 474 patient deaths occurred after a mean follow-up of 8.4 years, and 268 of which were attributed to cardiovascular events. Abnormal ABI (≤ 0.9) and highest baPWV quartile were independently associated with increased risks of all-cause [ABI: hazard ratio (HR) 1.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.30–2.11; baPWV: 1.63, 1.16–2.27] and expanded CVD mortality (ABI: 2.21, 1.62–3.02; baPWV: 1.75, 1.09–2.83). The combination of abnormal ABI (≤ 0.9) and highest baPWV quartile was associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause (4.51, 2.50–8.11) and expanded CVD mortality (9.74, 4.21–22.51) compared with that of the combination of normal ABI and lowest baPWV quartile. Significant interactions were observed between ABI and baPWV in relation to all-cause and expand CVD mortality (both p for interaction < 0.001). Through their independent, joint, and interactive effects, ABI and baPWV are significant parameters that can improve the prediction of all-cause and expanded CVD mortality in patients with T2DM and help identify high-risk patients who may benefit from diabetes care.