Multi-step forecasting of dissolved oxygen in River Ganga based on CEEMDAN-AdaBoost-BiLSTM-LSTM model

Abstract

Abstract Accurate prediction of Dissolved Oxygen (DO) is an integral part of water resource management. This study proposes a novel approach combining Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) with AdaBoost and deep learning for multi-step forecasting of DO. CEEMDAN generates Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) with different frequencies, capturing non-linear and non-stationary characteristics of the data. The high-frequency and medium-frequency IMFs, characterized by complex patterns and frequent changes over time, are predicted using Adaboost with Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) as the base estimator. The low-frequency IMFs, characterized by relatively simple patterns, are predicted using standalone Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The proposed CEEMDAN-AdaBoost-BiLSTM-LSTM model is tested on data from ten stations of river Ganga. We compare the results with six models without decomposition and four models utilizing decomposition. Experimental results show that using a tailored prediction technique based on each IMF’s distinctive features leads to more accurate forecasts. CEEMDAN-AdaBoost-BiLSTM-LSTM outperforms CEEMDAN-BiLSTM with an average improvement of 25.458% for RMSE and 37.390% for MAE. Compared with CEEMDAN-AdaBoost-BiLSTM, an average improvement of 20.779% for RMSE and 28.921% for MAE is observed. Diebold-Mariano test and t-test suggest a statistically significant difference in performance between the proposed and compared models.

Keywords

• Complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise
• AdaBoost
• Long short-term memory
• Water quality forecasting