Change- Point in Poisson Distribution with Application in Iranian Mortality Data

Abstract

Background & Objectives: Changing the pattern of mortality gives important perspective of health determinants. The aim of this study is to detect location and time of mortality pattern change in country using statistical change point method during 1971-2009 Years. Methods: We assume for years before and after 0 k , t y has a Poisson distribution with means 0 l and 1 l , respectively. We used several methods for estimation change point in real data by assume Poisson model. Results: Using two simulated and real data analysis showed that the change point has been occurred in year 1993 and this confirmed by all methods.Conclusion: Our findings have shown that the change pattern of mortality trend in Iran is related to improvement of health indicators and decreasing mortality rate in Iran.

Keywords

• Change Point
• Poisson
• Mortality Index
• Likelihood Ratio
• Vital Statistics