Historic Socio-Hydromorphology Co-Evolution in the Delta of Neretva

Abstract

This study presents the historical sequence of the inter-relationship between climate, sea-level change, hydromorphology, and the society in the “Delta of Neretva”, Croatia. This study aims to support future-oriented planning, since the cumulative impact of climate and mean sea-level changes on the delta hydromorphology and socio-economy is very uncertain and difficult to predict. In particular, the sustainability development of the Delta of Neretva requires a long-range strategy that is complicated to outline. In the proposed approach, hydromorphology is used as a sustainability indicator since it considers both the physical character and water content of the delta and looks at how nature and human activities influence the biophysical system and economy. The direction of delta progression and persistence of socio-hydromorphology are evaluated with the assessment of system entropy generation considering the simple system state function. Such a method overcomes the difficulties posed by top–down and bottom–up approaches, making future scenarios and cumulative impacts visible and understandable to stakeholders. The historical co-evolution results indicate that the delta in the future could become a submerged estuary (rias), that is, a sea bay as a result of the subsequent delta progradation caused by an MSL rise, similar to the progradation during the Holocene, and decreasing sediment deposition due to anthropologic processes in their watershed. Technology (policy) assessment suggests that adaptation measures that gradually support environmental security and sustainable livelihoods, i.e., increase natural order at a society-acceptable cost, are preferable.

Keywords

• socio-hydromorphology
• climate change
• sea-level change
• water resources management
• entropy
• cumulative impact