Stochastic modeling of spatial dependency structures of extreme precipitation in the Northern Great Plains using max-stable processes

Abstract

The objective of this study is to quantify the spatial dependency and trend of annual maxima precipitation (annual highest daily precipitation, from 1970 to 2020) across selected weather stations in the Nelson Churchill River Basin (NCRB) of North America. This study uses max-stable processes to examine spatial extremes of annual maxima precipitation. The generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters are expressed as simple linear combinations of geographical coordinates (i.e., longitude and latitude) and topography. The results show that topography, geographical coordinates, and time (as a temporal covariate) were important covariates in reproducing the stochastic extreme precipitation field using the spatial generalized extreme value (SPEV). The inclusion of time as a covariate further confirms the impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation in the NCRB. The fitted SPEV was used to predict the 25- and 50-year return period levels. The fitted Extremal-t max-stable process model captured the spatial dependency structure of the extreme precipitation in the NCRB. The study is relevant in quantifying the spatial dependency structure of extreme precipitation in the Northern Great Plains. The result will contribute as a decision-support system in climate adaptation strategies in the United States and Canada. HIGHLIGHTS 25- and 50-year return-level scenarios for the daily annual extreme precipitation show spatial variability in all the sub-basins.; The precipitation extremes in the NCRB show both spatial trends and dependency.; Including topography shows that the Rocky Mountains have some influence on the extreme precipitation in the NCRB.; Fitted Extremal-t max-stable process adequately captured the spatial dependency structures.;

Keywords

• canada
• extreme events
• flash flood protection
• flood protection
• max-stable processes
• maxima annual rainfall