Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity (Mar 2022)
Development and External Validation of a Nomogram and a Risk Table for Prediction of Type 2 Diabetic Kidney Disease Progression Based on a Retrospective Cohort Study in China
Abstract
Yue-Ming Gao,1 Song-Tao Feng,1 Yang Yang,2 Zuo-Lin Li,1 Yi Wen,1 Bin Wang,1 Lin-Li Lv,1 Guo-Lan Xing,2 Bi-Cheng Liu1 1Institute of Nephrology, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University School of Medicine, Nanjing, 210009, People’s Republic of China; 2Institute of Nephrology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450000, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Bi-Cheng Liu, Institute of Nephrology, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University School of Medicine, 87 Dingjiaqiao Road, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, 210009, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-25-83262422, Email [email protected]: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is the leading cause of end-stage renal disease worldwide. Risk assessment provides information about patient prognosis, contributing to the risk stratification of patients and the rational allocation of medical resources. We aimed to develop a model for individualized prediction of renal function decline in patients with type 2 DKD (T2DKD).Patients and Methods: In a retrospective observational study, we followed 307 T2DKD patients and evaluated the determinants of 1) risk of doubling in serum creatinine (Scr), 2) risk of eGFR 2) and low-risk (score ≤ 2) groups in the derivation and external validation cohorts (P < 0.001).Conclusion: The nomogram and the risk table using readily available clinical parameters could be new tools for bedside prediction of renal function decline in T2DKD patients.Graphical Abstract: Keywords: diabetic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes, estimated glomerular filtration rate, progression, prediction model
