Evaluation of the use of a photovoltaic installation in the autumn and winter in the aspect of climate change

Abstract

Aim of the study: In the face of inevitable climate change and high energy demand during the heating season (October–March), an attempt was made to estimate the change in available total radiation over a 60-year perspective (2000–2060). Material and methods: Five formulas based on standard meteorological data (temperature, precipitation) were used to estimate radiation, for which parameters were determined based on actual observations from Wrocław, which is a good representative of the southern, lowland part of Poland. Precipitation and temperature values for the year 2060 and the RCP 6.0 scenario, as well as background (year 2000), were obtained using the WGENK meteorological data generator. Results and conclusions: The results obtained indicate that with the expected increase in temperature and precipitation, total radiation may decrease by 5% during the October–March period in the year 2060 compared to the reference year 2000.

Keywords

• climate change
• representative concentration pathways (rcps)
• daily total radiation