Analysis of decreasing natality trend in the Czech Republic

Abstract

The aim of this paper is factors identification of the decreasing natality trend in the Czech Republic between years 1991–2005. This identification is done with respect to the financial situation and living standard of families.The first step, analysis of natality factor – animation natality, is performed. Animation natality is divi­ded according to the mother family state in the time of the birth. Trend of born in marriage and trend out of marriage are described. Following analysis is focused on decreasing component of natality – number of born in marriage.The second step is time series correlation analysis used for identification and evaluation influence of demographic and economic factors on decreasing component of natality. Based on this analysis, in­fluen­cing factors for regression model describing natality are selected.The last step is formulation and estimation of multiple regression model describing causality between natality in marriage and selected factors.

Keywords

• natality
• correlation analysis
• multiple regression analysis