Nomogram for predicting survival of patients with gastric cancer and multiple primary malignancies: a real-world retrospective analysis using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database

Abstract

Objectives Gastric cancer combined with multiple primary malignancies (GCM) is increasingly common. This study investigated GCM clinical features and survival time. Methods Patients with GCM and GC only (GCO) were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Survival was compared between GCM and GCO groups using propensity score matching. Then, the GCM group was divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. These cohorts were used to establish a nomogram for survival prediction in patients with GCM. Results Survival time was significantly longer in the GCM group than in the GCO group. All-subsets regression was used to identify four variables for nomogram establishment: age, gastric cancer sequence, N stage, and surgery. The concordance index and time‐dependent receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the nomogram had favorable discriminative ability. Calibration plots of predicted and actual probabilities showed good consistency in both the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis and risk stratification showed that the nomogram was clinically useful; it had favorable discriminative ability to recognize patients with different levels of risk. Conclusions Compared with GCO, GCM is a relatively indolent malignancy. The nomogram developed in this study can help clinicians to assess GCM prognosis.