Analysis of Symmetric and Asymmetric Shocks of Oil Price on Stock Market Index: (NARDL Approach)

Abstract

In the developed world, capital markets are mentioned as one of the economic growth resources, and the fair distribution of wealth and also increasing per capita income. By attracting the micro capital of the society, while employ micro capitals in production, also generate income for real and legal shareholders. Another positive effects for this market is the absorption of market liquidity ,which is one of the main reasons for inflation in countries.One of the components that always causes the stock market to fluctuate is the price of oil. In countries such as Iran , which are heavily dependent on oil revenues.Fluctuation in oil prices and the stock market are more exposd to government interventions.Accordingly, in present study using the monthly data for the years from 2012 to 2019 with the method of Nonlinear Cointegrating Autoregressive Distributed Lag ,has been tried to test asymmetry in effectiveness.Research results show that fluctuation in oil prices ,exchange rate, money supply and consumer price index fluctuation in oil prices ,exchange rate, money supply and consumer price index can be effective among the channels in the stock market.Also, fluctuation in oil prices and asymmetric exchange rate and consumer price index and money supply are reported symmetrically.

Keywords

• positive and negative oil price fluctuations
• stock market index
• nonlinear cointegrating autoregressive distributed lag (nardl)
• autoregressive distributed lag (ardl)