Future Skilled-Labour Markets in Germany: from Model-Based Calculations to Scenarios

Abstract

In this article, we focus on the potential development of the German labour market. For this purpose, wedeveloped a forecasting system that considers both supply and demand by occupational fi elds and qualifi cationsand that relies on consistent datasets, exogenous assumptions and systematic correlations. We presentthe key impacts for our forecasting system and highlight the eff ects of diff erent assumptions (scenarios)exemplifi ed on our demand model. On the supply side, we point out how diff erent behaviours on the individuallevel infl uence the structure of development of the supply of skilled labour. Keeping the possibility of thosevarious potential futures in mind, we conclude with an outlook on potential skilled labour shortages inthe future.

Keywords

• Employment
• qualifi cation
• forecast
• scenario building
• occupational mobility
• demography
• labour market