Uncertainly Analysis of Prior Distribution in Accelerated Degradation Testing Bayesian Evaluation Method Based on Deviance Information Criterion

Abstract

The accelerated degradation testing (ADT) Bayesian evaluation method comprehensively utilizes product degradation data under accelerated stress levels collected over a short period of time and multiple sources of prior information, such as historical information, similar product information, simulation information, etc., to conduct life and reliability evaluation. Through the prior distribution, prior information affects the ADT Bayesian evaluation results ultimately. However, different evaluators may obtain different prior distributions based on the same prior information due to varying experiences or rules, which may lead to differences in the ADT Bayesian evaluation results. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze and study the impact of prior distribution uncertainty on the ADT Bayesian evaluation results while also finding criteria to judge the quality of prior distributions. This paper focuses on the ADT Bayesian evaluation method based on the Wiener process and the Arrhenius relation, studying the influence of different prior distributions on the robustness of ADT Bayesian evaluation results. Additionally, based on the deviance information criterion (DIC), a criterion for selecting prior distributions in the ADT Bayesian evaluation method is proposed. Through carrying out uncertainty analysis of prior distribution in the ADT Bayesian evaluation method, a theoretical system and framework for analyzing prior uncertainty in ADT Bayesian evaluation based on DIC are established, providing a better foundation for the practical application of the ADT Bayesian evaluation method in engineering.

Keywords

• prior distribution
• accelerated degradation testing
• Bayesian evaluation
• deviance information criterion