Communications Medicine (May 2022)
Estimating the COVID-19 infection fatality ratio accounting for seroreversion using statistical modelling
- Nicholas F. Brazeau,
- Robert Verity,
- Sara Jenks,
- Han Fu,
- Charles Whittaker,
- Peter Winskill,
- Ilaria Dorigatti,
- Patrick G. T. Walker,
- Steven Riley,
- Ricardo P. Schnekenberg,
- Henrique Hoeltgebaum,
- Thomas A. Mellan,
- Swapnil Mishra,
- H. Juliette T. Unwin,
- Oliver J. Watson,
- Zulma M. Cucunubá,
- Marc Baguelin,
- Lilith Whittles,
- Samir Bhatt,
- Azra C. Ghani,
- Neil M. Ferguson,
- Lucy C. Okell
Affiliations
- Nicholas F. Brazeau
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Robert Verity
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Sara Jenks
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh
- Han Fu
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Charles Whittaker
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Peter Winskill
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Ilaria Dorigatti
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Patrick G. T. Walker
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Steven Riley
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Ricardo P. Schnekenberg
- Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford
- Henrique Hoeltgebaum
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College
- Thomas A. Mellan
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Swapnil Mishra
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- H. Juliette T. Unwin
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Oliver J. Watson
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Zulma M. Cucunubá
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Marc Baguelin
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Lilith Whittles
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Samir Bhatt
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Azra C. Ghani
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Neil M. Ferguson
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Lucy C. Okell
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00106-7
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 2,
no. 1
pp. 1 – 13
Abstract
Brazeau et al. use a statistical modelling approach to estimate COVID-19 infection fatality ratios from seroprevalence data. The authors’ model accounts for seroreversion over the course of the pandemic, as well as other important uncertainties such as serologic test characteristics.
