Comparison of P-POSSUM Score and NELA Score as Prime Predictors of Mortality in Emergency Laparotomies at a Tertiary Care Centre: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Introduction: Emergency laparotomies carry significant morbidity and mortality. Preoperative risk assessment is the key part for all emergency laparotomies. Therefore, the use of Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) scores helps stratify the risk and highlight the importance of high-risk patients, aiding in the provision of appropriate treatment plans and care. Aim: To determine and compare the Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) score and NELA score in predicting mortality at 30 days and 60 days in patients undergoing emergency laparotomies. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cohort study included all patients who underwent emergency laparotomy at a tertiary care centre from January 2021 to March 2023. A total of 116 patients were included, and demographic variables, laboratory values, and operative details were recorded. Mortality on postoperative day 30 and 60 was observed. All data were recorded in an MS excel spreadsheet, and statistical analysis was performed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 19.0. An independent sample t-test was used. Results: Among the total study sample of 116 patients, the 30-day mortality rate was 8.6% (10 out of 116), and the 60-day mortality rate was 13.8% (16 out of 116). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for mortality prediction was 0.533 (0.361-0.726) for the P-Possum score and 0.873 (0.799-0.948) for the NELA score, which was significantly higher. Conclusion: The NELA Score demonstrated greater accuracy in predicting early and late mortality compared to the P-POSSUM score in this study. Therefore, the authors highly recommend the use of the NELA score for risk assessment in all emergency laparotomies.

Keywords

• high risk
• preoperative
• risk assessment
• scoring