Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (Feb 2022)
Large-scale synchronized replacement of Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant by the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-COV-2 in the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract
In this work, we report a large-scale synchronized replacement pattern of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant by the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-COV-2. We argue that this phenomenon is associated with the invasion timing and the transmissibility advantage of the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant. Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant skipped some countries/regions, e.g. India and neighboring countries/regions, which could have led to a mild first wave before the invasion of the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant, in term of reported COVID-deaths per capita.
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