Trends in the Notification Rates and Treatment Outcome of Tuberculosis in Shandong Province, China, 2005–2021

Abstract

Qilin Han,1,2 Yifan Li,3 Yao Liu,1 Xuehan Zhu,1 Qiqi An,4 Yameng Li,5 Tingting Wang,5 Yuzhen Zhang,1,2 Yingying Li,5 Weiwei Fang,1,2 Ningning Tao,1,* Huaichen Li1,2,* 1Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, Shandong, 250021, People’s Republic of China; 2Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, Shandong, 250117, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University (Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences), Jinan, Shandong, 250031, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Xingyi People’s Hospital, Qianxinan, Guizhou, 561499, People’s Republic of China; 5Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, Shandong, 250355, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Ningning Tao, Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, Shandong, 250021, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected] Huaichen Li, Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, 324 Jingwuweiqi Road, Huaiyin District, Jinan, Shandong, 250021, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected]: To analyze the time trends in the notification rates of registered tuberculosis (TB) and bacteriologically confirmed TB in Shandong Province. And analyze the changes in TB treatment outcomes during 2005– 2021.Patients and Methods: The information of TB patients registered in the Shandong Information Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was collected during 2005– 2021. We calculated the notification rates of registered TB and bacteriologically confirmed TB. Moreover, we calculated the year-to-year change rate of TB in treatment outcomes before and after COVID-19. The time trends were analyzed using the joinpoint regression method and illustrated as the annual percentage change (APC) of notification rates.Results: A total of 236,898 cases of TB were diagnosed during 2005– 2021, of which 51.11% were bacteriologically confirmed cases. Since 2008, the notification rates of registered TB have declined. The notification rates of bacteriologically confirmed TB had been declining during 2005– 2016, then remained stable after 2016. In subgroup, the notification rates of both registered TB and bacteriologically confirmed TB were higher among men, rural residents, and people aged ≥ 60 years. Compared with clinically confirmed TB, bacteriologically confirmed TB has shown higher rates of poor outcomes since 2008 and higher case fatality rate since 2005. The rate of poor outcomes remained stable during 2008– 2019. However, after the COVID-19 outbreak, the rate of poor outcomes and case fatality rate of TB has risen significantly.Conclusion: After unremitting efforts to fight against TB, the notification rates of registered TB and bacteriologically confirmed TB declined in Shandong Province. The rate of poor outcomes remained stable during 2008– 2019, then rise significantly after the COVID-19 outbreak. In the context of the long-term existence of COVID-19, further efforts should be made in TB diagnosis and treatment among high-risk population, especially with regard to males, rural residents and older adults.Keywords: tuberculosis, joinpoint regression, time trends, COVID-19

Keywords

• tuberculosis
• joinpoint regression
• time trends
• covid-19