Analytical model of reliability of the freight rail transportation forecasting system

Abstract

The purpose of the study: to develop an analytical model of the reliability of the freight transportation forecasting system by railway transport. Methods: economic and mathematical methods and models of transportation forecasting adapted to the peculiarities of railway freight transportation –models based on “Bottom/Top” approaches, methods of predictive adjustment by types of cargo, methods of scenario forecasting. Results: an analytical model of the reliability of the freight rail transportation forecasting system has been developed, the distinctive feature of which is the integration of cargo transportation evaluation indicators, characteristics of scenario methods and parameters of the forecasting process, a forecast has been formed for the volume and structure of freight traffic following through the Oktyabrskaya railway landfill for the future up to 2030 in the category of main types of cargo.