An On-Chain Analysis-Based Approach to Predict Ethereum Prices

Abstract

The Ethereum blockchain generates a significant amount of data due to its intrinsic transparency and decentralized nature. It is also referred to as on-chain data and is openly accessible to the world. Moreover, the on-chain data is timestamped, integrated, and validated into an open ledger. This important blockchain feature enables us to assess the network’s health and usage. It serves as a massive data warehouse for complex prediction algorithms that can effectively detect systemic trends and forecast future behavior. We adopt a quantitative approach using a subset of these metrics to determine the network’s true monetary value by developing a Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network (LSTM-RNN) with the metrics most closely associated with the price as inputs. Since several hyperparameters regulate the learning process in an RNN, they are highly sensitive to their values. It is thus critical, to select optimal hyperparameters so that the training is quick and effective. Determining the optimal parameters of an RNN model is a tedious and complex process. Hence, previous studies have developed several self-adaptive approaches to determine the optimal values for various parameters effectively. However, none of the prior studies explore self-adaptive algorithms in deep learning models in conjunction with on-chain data to predict cryptocurrency prices. In this paper, we propose three self-adaptive techniques, each of which converges on a set of optimal parameters to predict the price of Ethereum accurately. We compare our results to a traditional LSTM model. Our approach exhibits 86.94% accuracy while maintaining a minimum error rate.

Keywords

• Blockchain
• deep neural network
• differential evolution
• Ethereum
• evolutionary algorithms
• jSO