Global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases 2005–2050 with abatement potentials and costs

Abstract

This study uses the GAINS model framework to estimate current and future emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases), their abatement potentials, and costs for twenty source sectors and 162 countries and regions, which are aggregated to produce global estimates. Global F-gas (HFCs, PFCs, and SF6) emissions are estimated at 0.7 Pg CO2 eq. in 2005 with an expected increase to 3.7 Pg CO2 eq. in 2050 if application of control technology remains at the current level. There are extensive opportunities to reduce emissions using existing technology and alternative substances with low global warming potential. Estimates show that it would be technically feasible to reduce cumulative F-gas emissions from 81 to 11 Pg CO2 eq. between 2018 and 2050. A reduction in cumulative emissions to 23 Pg CO2 eq. is estimated to be possible at a marginal abatement cost below 10 EUR t−1 CO2 eq. We also find that future F-gas abatement is expected to become relatively more costly for developing than developed countries due to differences in the sector contribution to emissions and abatement potentials.