Threat identification, and risk assessment and monitoring as a form of early warning

Abstract

Early warning signal detection can make a huge difference in the ability of the system, society and community to deal with imminent crises and disasters, not only at national but also at regional and global level. Timely detection of signals that precede an adverse event provides an opportunity to avoid this event or to at least mitigate its consequences. Accurate, timely and properly formulated early warning can prevent the loss of human lives and alleviate the economic and financial impact of disasters. The initial and most important processes which provide the data necessary for making the decision to send an early warning are threat identification, and assessment and monitoring of risk for the observed system, society, or community. These three processes provide a framework for the analysis of scenarios with adverse outcomes and for the assessment of the consequences of alternative choices, including a scenario in which measures are not taken. Despite the growing awareness of the importance of the timely threat identification and the increase of the capacity for urgent response, the creation of an effective early warning system, in the conditions of global financial crisis and the different national economic standing, still remains a global challenge.

Keywords

• early warning
• threat identification
• risk assessment and monitoring
• early warning system