JUSTIFICATION OF THE PREDICTED VALUE OF OIL FLOW RATE INCREASE AFTER APPLYING WST WITH THE HELP OF THE STATISTICAL METHOD

Abstract

Relevance. A great number of well stimulation technologies are performed on LUKOIL-PERM LLC fields. A lot of fields are in the final stages of development. In conditions of a high degree of recovery of reserves, high water cut and decrease in reservoir pressure it is necessary to justify target well performance indicators on the new level. The aim of the research is to develop the algorithm for determining the optimal value of oil flow rate increase by technologies of intensification. Objects: the effectiveness of the proppant hydraulic fracturing, radial drilling, acid treatment at the carbonate V3V4 reservoir of the Batyrbayskoe field. Methods: regression analysis. Results. This paper proposes an algorithm for determining the optimal value of oil flow rate increase by technologies of intensification by means of regression analysis. The complex probability for well stimulation technologies: radial drilling, acid treatment and hydraulic fracturing was calculated. By constructed distributions of complex probability, it was possible to determine the boundary conditions of technology application, thereby confirming the economic component in substantiating the increase of oil flow rates. When comparing the effectiveness of several technologies, it was possible to determine the most promising for a carbonate object. The analysis of free terms of complex probabilities of technologies of regression equations is carried out. At each range of oil flow rate increment complex probability for definite technology is taking part. Changing the character of coefficient values distribution allowed revealing the area distribution of efficiency. Thus, the offered algorithm allowed not only grounding statistically an optimum value of increment of oil flow rate for development object, but also estimating the efficiency of each technology and constructing the scheme of efficiency forecast.

Keywords

• proppant hydraulic fracturing
• radial drilling
• acid treatment
• oil production
• probabilistic models
• regression analysis
• efficiency
• forecasting