Evaluation of Statistical Process Control Techniques in Monitoring Weekly Body Condition Scores as an Early Warning System for Predicting Subclinical Ketosis in Dry Cows

Abstract

The management of body condition score (BCS) during the dry period is associated with the postpartum health outcomes of dairy cows. However, the difference between the actual BCS and the fixed ideal value is not able to accurately predict the occurrence of postpartum diseases. This study aimed to use statistical process control (SPC) technology to monitor the BCS of dry cows, to evaluate the effect of control charts on nutritional strategies, and to explore the utility of SPC in predicting the incidence of postpartum subclinical ketosis (SCK). The BCS and SCK data of 286 cows from the dry off period to 60 days postpartum were collected to set up the early warning function. Three control charts, including a control chart for the average BCS of the herds, for the BCS of each dry cow, and for individual BCS, were established. The early warning signs for postpartum SCK development were: (1) an individual BCS more than 3.5 that remained unchanged for six weeks; (2) a capability index (CPK), an SPC tool, greater than −0.52. Using these parameters, the early warning signs of SCK development were verified in 429 dry cows. The results showed that the accuracy of early warning signal was 0.64 and the precision was 0.26. The control chart showed that the average BCS of dry cows was consistently higher than the expected upper limit of BCS during the experimental period, and that the addition of new cows to the herds increased the average BCS. In summary, the application of SPC technology to monitor the BCS of dry cows was not a good tool for the prediction of postpartum SCK occurrence but was an appropriate tool for guiding positive nutrition strategies.

Keywords

• dry period
• body condition score
• postpartum diseases
• subclinical ketosis
• statistical process control