To anticipate the future, models simulate US. pistachio prices

Abstract

Models developed on U.S. pistachio production simulate grower prices under scenarios of varying import levels and carryover stocks. Grower prices have significantly varied for 13 years, partly because of changes in import levels and domestic production. Bearing acreage has increased dramatically, and as nonbearing acreages mature, substantial growth in production is expected. In 1979, the fledgling U.S. pistachio industry produced 1,000 tons; in 1990, production was more than 58,000 tons. Anticipating future grower prices under alternative market scenarios is of interest, particularly as global political conditions change.