ARE THERE GOODWIN EMPLOYMENT-DISTRIBUTION CYCLES? INTERNATIONAL EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

Abstract

Goodwin´s predator-prey model predicts clockwise cycles in the employment-distribution space. Qualitative evidence is provided in favour of nonlinear dynamic behaviour for a sample of 67 countries, some of which have cycles similar to those predicted by the model. Predicted centres lie outside actual circles. The kind of cycle (clockwise, counter clockwise or atypical) appears to be related to the kind of capitalism of the country. Countries with Market or European capitalism, as well as transition economies, do not tend to have demand cycles; developing countries with a Mediterranean capitalism do not tend to have Goodwin cycles.

Keywords

• modelo depredador-presa
• comportamiento no lineal
• ciclos de demanda
• ciclos de crecimiento