Results in Physics (Dec 2020)
Oseltamivir in the treatment of severe type-A H1N1 flu and autoregressive integrated moving average mathematical model analysis of epidemiology
Abstract
In order to analyze the application effect of oseltamivir and zanamivir in severe type-A H1N1 flue and construct the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) mathematical model of epidemiology of the disease, 118 cases of critical patients with H1N1 flu were divided into experimental group and the control group. The experimental group was treated with oseltamivir, while the control group was treated with zanamivir. The data of flu patients in 2010–2018 were collected to construct an ARIMA mathematical model and to predict the proportion of HINI diagnoses in 2019. And the onset time of the abatement of fever, clearance time of the fever, symptom scores, history of this disease, syndromes and effectiveness, as well as the adverse events after treatment were all recorded. The results showed that there were 71 cases (60.12%) had exposure history with patients of H1N1 flu, 31 cases (25.91%) had a close contact history with those patients, and 6 cases (4.92%) had already got a flu vaccination; the patient had the highest cough rate (84.15%) in respiratory symptoms, the highest fever rate (94.41%) in systemic toxemic symptoms, and the highest nausea rate (35.27%) in gastrointestinal symptoms; the prediction results of ARIMA mathematical model in February, March, April, May, July, August, October, November, and December were not significantly different from the real results (P > 0.05), and were significantly different from the real results in in January, June, and September (P 0.05), and the clearance time of the fever was lower than that in the control group (P < 0.05); the symptom scores of patients in the experimental group were significantly lower than those in the control group 4 to 7 days after treatment (P < 0.05); the final recovery rate of the experimental group was higher than that of the control group, and the inefficiency was lower than that of the control group (P < 0.05); and the proportion of patients with diarrhea and insomnia was lower than that of the control group (P < 0.05). In short, the close contact history of patients with H1N1 flu and the history of vaccination are important causes for the spread of flu and cough, fever, nausea, and bacterial pneumonia are the common epidemiological foundations and progressive symptoms of critical patients with H1N1 flu. Compared with zanamivir, oseltamivir has a better rate of clearance time for treating fever and a better improvement for curing flu symptoms, as well as has a higher safety. The prediction effect of ARIMA mathematical model is ideal relatively and still can be optimized and improved further.
