Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Prediction of Ecological Vulnerability in Songhua River Basin Based on AHP-SPCA Entropy Weight Model

Abstract

[Objective] The dynamic changes and development of ecological vulnerability in the Songhua River basin were scientifically evaluated in order to provide a scientific basis for ecological protection and restoration in the area. [Methods] An index system was constructed from the perspectives of nature and humanity using the AHP-SPCA entropy model and a geo-information spectrum to dynamically evaluate and analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of ecological vulnerability of the study area from 2005 to 2020, The ecological status of the study area in 2025 was simulated and predicted by combining the analysis results with the CA-Markov model. [Results] ① Ecological vulnerability of the study area gradually decreased from east to west during 2005—2015, but in 2020, ecological vulnerability increased in the west. During the study period, the average ecological vulnerability was 3.006 8, which was in the moderately vulnerable state. ② The micro-potential, micro-mild, mild-moderate, moderate-mild spectrum types were the most prominent during the study period. ③ The kappa coefficient of the predicted value in 2020 was 0.81, indicating that the CA-Markov model was suitable for simulation prediction. The comprehensive index was predicted to be 3.265 9 in 2025, and the overall ecological vulnerability was rising. [Conclusion] The ecological vulnerability of the Songhua River basin has been rising over time, and the basin is facing the risk of ecological deterioration. It will be necessary to strengthen efforts to protect and manage the ecological environment.

Keywords

• ahp-spca entropy model
• ca-markov model
• geo-information spectrum
• ecological vulerability
• songhua river basin