Evolution Characteristics of Seismic Detection Probability in Underground Mines and Its Application for Assessing Seismic Risks—A Case Study

Abstract

Seismic hazards are typical mining hazards causing dynamic failure of coal and rock mass, which greatly threatens the safety of personnel and equipment. At present, various seismic analysis methods are used to assess seismic risks but their accuracy is significantly limited by the incompleteness of seismic data. The probability of detecting earthquakes (PDE) method has been proven as a powerful means for retrieving missed seismic events and enhancing the seismic data integrity in mines. However, to date, the reliability of the results of the PDE method has not been assessed and the highly integrated seismic data have not been linked with the actual hazard potential. To fill these gaps, this paper investigated the impacts of the seismic data volume used for calculation and the modification of the layout of sensors on the reliability and robustness of the PDE method. The event counts and seismic energy were compensated using the PDE method, correlated with strong seismic events. The results indicated that the compensated seismic data presented higher accuracy in locating future hazardous events than before. This research provides references on enhancing the performance of seismic analysing methods for seismic risk assessments.

Keywords

• coal burst
• rockbursts
• detection probability
• seismic monitoring
• magnitude of completeness
• seismic data integrity