The effect of the pathway to a two degrees warmer world on the regional temperature change of Europe

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate if the pathway to reach a 2 degree warmer world influences the regional climate in Europe at the time of 2 degrees of global warming above the pre-industrial level. We have investigated this using climate change data from ensembles of both Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models. We compare the change of regional temperature in Europe to the global temperature change for different emission scenarios, following the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), to see if the pathway has any influence. We find that there is a small but significant difference in the regional temperature change, but the effect is small compared to internal variability on the timescales involved in reaching +2 degrees for the investigated emission scenarios. From an adaptation point of view, reaching +2 degrees as slowly as possible will obviously allow for a longer time period to implement adaptation measures to mitigate the effect of climate change.

Keywords

• RCM
• GCM
• Europe
• Temperature change