Anticipating Alternative Futures for the Platform Economy

Abstract

Despite the considerable hype around platforms, our understanding of what the platform economy means and what drivers will define future development trajectories is limited. Companies and policy makers have a great need to investigate what potential opportunities will arise from the platform economy. A shared perception of uncertainties and a strong vision are prerequisites for the development of the platform economy. In this article, we describe a systematic way to develop a resilient vision for a new platform ecosystem, both from the viewpoint of national policy makers and corporate strategy makers in the heavy engineering industry. The process uses morphological analysis for scenario development and robust portfolio modelling for creating resilient strategies. The results include a list of key uncertainties, three general scenarios (sustainable development by Europe; polarization driven by China and the United States; US-driven fast, unreliable growth) as well as steel-industry specific scenarios based on these uncertainties, elements of a resilient vision, and strategies for coping with the uncertainties described by the scenarios.

Keywords

• foresight
• morphological analysis
• platform economy
• platforms
• portfolio modelling
• resilience
• scenarios
• strategy