Spatiotemporal Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of the SIMPLE Model Applied to Common Beans for Semi-Arid Climate of Mexico

Abstract

Simulation models are used to estimate, forecast, optimize and identify limiting factors and analyze changes in crop production. In order to obtain a functional and reliable mathematical model, it is necessary to know the source of uncertainty and identify the most influential parameters. This study aimed to carry out an uncertainty analysis (UA) and a global spatiotemporal sensitivity analysis (SA) for the parameters of the SIMPLE model, which uses 13 parameters, has two state variables and uses daily weather data to simulate crop growth and development. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed for the UA, and Sobol’s method was used for the SA. Four automatic weather stations representing the climatic conditions of the different bean-producing areas in Zacatecas, Mexico, and a four-year historical series of each station for irrigated and rainfed common bean crops were analyzed. From the UA the coefficients of variation (CV) for thermal time were 11.49% and 11.47%, for biomass the CV were 47.94% and 37.80% and for yield the CV were 49.52% and 39.70% for irrigated and rainfed beans, respectively. From the SA, the most influential parameters for irrigated beans were Tsum > Swater > Tbase > I50A > Topt and for rainfed beans, Tsum > Tbase > I50A > Topt > Swater, according to indices calculated on biomass and thermal time. In conclusion, UA was able to accurately quantify the uncertainty of the biomass, and SA allowed the identification of the most influential of the parameters of the SIMPLE model applied to a common bean crop.

Keywords

• dynamic model
• simulation
• Sobol’s method
• common bean (<i>Phaseolus vulgaris</i> L.)