Optimized Random Forest for Solar Radiation Prediction Using Sunshine Hours

Abstract

Knowing exactly how much solar radiation reaches a particular area is helpful when planning solar energy installations. In recent years the use of renewable energies, especially those related to photovoltaic systems, has had an impressive up-tendency. Therefore, mechanisms that allow us to predict solar radiation are essential. This work aims to present results for predicting solar radiation using optimization with the Random Forest (RF) algorithm. Moreover, it compares the obtained results with other machine learning models. The conducted analysis is performed in Queretaro, Mexico, which has both direct solar radiation and suitable weather conditions more than three quarters of the year. The results show an effective improvement when optimizing the hyperparameters of the RF and Adaboost models, with an improvement of 95.98% accuracy compared to conventional methods such as linear regression, with 54.19%, or recurrent networks, with 53.96%, without increasing the computational time and performance requirements to obtain the prediction. The analysis was successfully repeated in two different scenarios for periods in 2020 and 2021 in Juriquilla. The developed method provides robust performance with similar results, confirming the validity and effectiveness of our approach.

Keywords

• random forest
• solar radiation
• hyperparameter optimization
• neural networks
• prediction